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October, 2002
October 29, 2002
Early this month, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT held a seminar on de-alerting of Russian and US strategic forces. Leading Russian experts took part in the seminar. Summary of the meeting was published last week (in Russian).October 23, the First Committee of the United Nations General Assembly approved by consensus the draft resolution jointly introduced by Russia and the United States, "Bilateral strategic nuclear arms reductions and new strategic framework": Russian MFA Press Release "On the Approval by UN General Assembly First Committee of the Russia, US Joint Draft Resolution on Bilateral Strategic Nuclear Arms Reductions and New Strategic Framework," October 25, 2002.
Pravda.ru reports about Typhoon class strategic nuclear submarine that remains in service "Typhoon" Uncovers Secrets, - in Russian, (by Vitaliy Bratkov, Vladimir Berbenets, Andrey Mikhailov, Alexandr Shaurov, Pravda.ru, October 23, 2002)
In his recent speech Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said that withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty put the US in a much better position to develop and deploy a ballistic missile defense system capable of protecting all 50 states:
- U.S. Cannot Ignore Ballistic Missile Threat, (by Jim Garamone, American Forces Press Service, October 25, 2002)
- Remarks by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz On Missile Defense, Frontiers of Freedom, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Washington, DC, Thursday, October 24, 2002.
Speaking after his consultations with US Under Secretary of State John Bolton, Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Georgy Mamedov said that G8 countries allocated $15 billion for the destruction of weapons of mass destruction and the materials which are used for their production:
- G7 Scraped Up $15 Billion, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Nikolsky, Yelena Yevstigneyeva, Yekaterina Kudashkina, Vedomosti, October 23, 2002)
- Transcript of Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Georgy Mamedov Remarks to Russian Media Following Talks with US Under Secretary of State John Bolton (Moscow, October 21, 2002)
The US concerned by the Russian-Iranian nuclear cooperation reportedly offered to lift restrictions on the Russian importation of US-controlled spent nuclear fuel in return for a Russian halt of this program:
- U.S.: $10B If Russia Stops Iran Aid, (by Barry Schweid, Associated Press, Wednesday, October 23, 2002; 11:38 PM)
- Iran Pledged to Sent Nuclear Wastes to Russia, - in Russian, (by Alyona Kornysheva, Kommersant, October 23, 2002)
- Moscow Snubs U.S. Compensation Offer, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, October 22, 2002)
- Russia Resists Ending Iran Project, (by Peter Baker, The Washington Post, Tuesday, October 22, 2002; Page A19)
October 21, the First Committee of the United Nations General Assembly by 144 votes approved a resolution in support of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The resolution was cosponsored by 70 countries, including Russia: Russian MFA Press Release On the Adoption by 57th UNGA First Committee of a Resolution on the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test Ban Treaty, October 22, 2002
The United States, Japan and South Korea issued a joint statement calling on North Korea to dismantle its clandestine nuclear weapons program "in a prompt and verifiable manner":
- N. Korea Rejects Japan's Call to Abandon Nuclear Program, (by Eric Talmadge, Associated Press, Tuesday, October 29, 2002; 4:17 AM)
- Japan: No North Korea Ties if Nukes Being Developed, (by Linda Sieg, Reuters, Monday, October 28, 2002; 2:03 AM)
- U.S. and 2 of Its Allies Warn North Korea on Atomic Arms, (by Tim Weiner, The New York Times, October 27, 2002)
- Engaging North Korea, (by Jimmy Carter, The New York Times, October 27, 2002)
- Pyongyang Asserts Right to Possess Nuclear Weapons, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 25, 2002)
- Ten Questions on North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Program, (by Dipali Mukhopadhyay and Jon Wolfsthal, Carnegie Endowment for Peace, Thursday, October 24, 2002)
- Multipolar Nuke Nightmare, (by Pavel Felgenhauer, The Moscow Times, Thursday, October 24, 2002)
- U.S., Russian Officials Discuss North Korea's Nuclear Capability, (Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, October 23, 2002)
Al Qaeda's secret nuclear stash is assumed to be somewhere in Afghanistan, although finding it is proving to be as hard as locating Osama bin Laden: Al Qaeda nukes are reality, intelligence says, (Neil Doyle, The Washington Times, October 28, 2002).
In view of terrorist act in Moscow, Minatom tightened security at nuclear facilities: Nuclear Industry On Alert, - in Russian, (by Andrey Vaganov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 28, 2002)
American experts are divided in assessing the risk to the public from attacks on nuclear power plants. Russian scientists offer radical solution: underground plants.
- Neither Boeing, Nor Bomb Would Reach It, - in Russian, (by Yuriy Medvedev, Wek, 25 October, 2002)
- U.S. Officials, Industry Leaders Disagree on Level of Threat to Nuclear Plants, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 24, 2002)
- Split on Nuclear Plants: Weak Spot or Fortress?, (by Matthew L. Wald, The New York Times, October 23, 2002)
Sergei Mossakovski, an expert on conversion of military enterprises, who worked for many years in Chelyabinsk-70 discusses the future of the closed city: Russian Nuclear Weapon Laboratories: Problems of Conversion, - in Russian, (by Andrey Lubenski, Pravda.Ru, October 29, 2002)
At the 40th anniversary of Cuban Crisis:
- At the Brink of Nuclear War, - in Russian, (by Georgiy Petrov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 28, 2002)
- Resident's Hot Line, - in Russian, (by Vladimir Chikov, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 25, 2002)
- Honeymoon Beside Nuclear Button, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 25, 2002)
- Monsters Regained Their Sight, - in Russian, (by Andrey Zaytsev, Yuriy Nezhnikov, Izvestia, October 24, 2002 ã.)
- What Did John Kennedy Tear Off Nikita Khrushchev?, - in Russian, (by Andrey Mikhailov, Pravda.ru, October 23, 2002)
October 22, 2002
At the First Committee of the UN General Assembly Russia and the United States introduced for consideration a joint draft resolution entitled "Bilateral Strategic Nuclear Arms Reductions and New Strategic Framework." Parliamentary hearings on the Russia-USA Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty took place in the Federation Council International Affairs, and Defense and Security Committees on October 15.
- Transcript of the Interview of Georgy Mamedov, Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Russian press after meeting with John Bolton, Under Secretary of State - in Russian, (Moscow, October 21, 2002)
- Russian MFA Press Release On the Consideration by UN General Assembly of a Russia-US Joint Draft Resolution Entitled "Bilateral Strategic Nuclear Arms Reductions and New Strategic Framework", October 17, 2002
- United States: Eliminating Nuclear Delivery Platforms Could Save Billions, (by David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 17, 2002)
- Russian MFA Press Release On the Consideration in the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Question of Ratification of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty Between Russia and the USA, October 15, 2002
- Testimony Submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee For a Hearing on the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty between The United States and Russia, (by Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 12, 2002)
"...Polemics unfolded about the recently signed Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions, resembles in many ways disputes among medieval Scholastics on how many devils can fit on a needle point. It is as captivating for experts and is as far from reality; in this particular case -- from the reality of Russian-US relations..." (How Many Devils Can Fit on a Needle Point or Does the Strategic Arms Control Have a Future?, - in Russian, (by Yuri Fyodorov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 21, 2002)
The US Defense Department successfully tested a missile interceptor designed to be a component of a US Ground-based Midcourse Defense system. The Union of Concerned Scientists released a report that analyses goals of the experiment and concludes that Pentagon did not move any closer to the solution of a fundamental problem -- distinguishing between decoys and warheads.
- U.S. Plans: Activist Group Provides More Details on Decoys Used in Intercept Test, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 17, 2002)
- Missile Interceptor Did Not Miss, - in Russian, (by Alexei Lyaschenko, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 16, 2002)
- US missile defence test dodges decoys, (by Will Knight, New Scientist, October 15, 2002)
- Interceptor Test Scores Fifth Successful Hit, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, October 15, 2002)
- Missile Intercept Test Successful, U.S. Department of Defense, October 14, 2002)
- Information the Missile Defense Agency Doesn't Want You to Know, (Union of Concerned Scientists, October 11, 2002)
- The Target Set for Missile Defense Intercept Test IFT-9, (by David Wright, Union of Concerned Scientists, October 11, 2002)
See also: Congressional Negotiators Approve $7.4 Billion for Missile Defenses, (Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, October 15, 2002)
Coincidence of the US missile interceptor test and exercises of the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces is not accidental, suggests Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye. Nuclear confrontation between Russia and the US did not become a thing of the past, although it is not as tense now: Through the Nuclear Sight, - in Russian, (by Sergey Sokut, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, October 18, 2002).
The United States has transferred the first of two Trident ballistic missile submarines to the West Coast to replace nuclear submarines that are being converted to carry conventional weapons: Trident sub Pennsylvania transfers to Bangor from Georgia, (by Mike Barber, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, Friday, October 18, 2002)
Last week's most sensational event was North Korea’s admission that it has an active nuclear weapons program in direct violation of the 1994 Agreed Framework with the United States. Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected allegations that Russia was helping the DPRK with the development of its nuclear program:
- Who Is More Terrible than Saddam? Kim Jong Il., - in Russian, (by Yevgeni Buy, Izvestia, October 22, 2002)
- Pyongyang's Poker, - in Russian, (by Alexei Slobodin and Alexandr Lomanov, Vremya Novostei, October 22, 2002)
- A Storm in A Glass of Light Water, - in Russian, (by Vladimir Skosyrev, Vremya MN, October 22, 2002)
- Bush Sees Korean Nuclear Effort as Different From Iraq's, (by Elisabeth Bumiller, The New York Times, October 22, 2002)
- United States to Scrap 1994 Agreed Framework, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, October 21, 2002)
- N.Korea Ready to Talk with U.S. on Nuclear Arms, (by Paul Eckert, Reuters, Monday, October 21, 2002; 1:05 PM)
- N. Korea to Have Nuclear Dialogue, (by Paul Shin, Associated Press, Monday, October 21, 2002; 1:54 AM)
- Back to the Brink, (by Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry, The Washington Post, Sunday, October 20, 2002; Page B01)
- Korean Nuclear Bomb was Made by Russians and Pakistanis, - in Russian, (by Andrey Zhvirblis, Alexandr Kornilov, Gazeta.Ru, October 19, 2002)
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers Russian Media's Question Regarding Reports Concerning Nuclear Program Development in DPRK, October 18, 2002
- Sensational Confession from Pyongyang, - in Russian, (Krasnaya Zvezda, October 18, 2002)
- Washington Scares World by Poor Koreans, - in Russian, (by Andrei Ivanov, Kommersant, October 18, 2002)
- North Korea's Nuclear Breach, (by Jon Wolfsthal, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Thursday, October 17, 2002)
- Nuclear Capability of North Korea, a chapter from Deadly Arsenals, 2002
U.S. officials eager to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons privately offered a potentially lucrative economic deal to Russia in exchange for halting construction of an atomic reactor and other cooperation with Tehran, but Moscow has resisted the proposal: Russia Resists Ending Iran Project, (by Peter Baker, The Washington Post, Tuesday, October 22, 2002; Page A19).
Cooperation with Iran, North Korea, Iraq's nuclear program and other issues have been also discussed in An Interview of Alexandr Rumyantsev, Head of the Ministry of Nuclear Energy of the Russian Federation, (Ekho Moskvy, October 21, 2002)
New analysis of the Carnegie Endowment for Peace compares several official assessments of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs: Iraq's WMD Programs: A Comparison of Assessments, (by Andrew Krepps, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Friday, October 11, 2002)
Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation released a report on Informing the Public about the Risks and Realities of Nuclear Terrorism: Communicating Nuclear Risk: Informing the Public about the Risks and Realities of Nuclear Terrorism, (by Tonya L. Putnam, CISAC Workshop Report, October 2002)
At the 40th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis:
- Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Release Concerning 40th Anniversary of the "Caribbean Crisis", October 21, 2002
- Lessons of the Caribbean Crisis, - in Russian, (by Karen Khachaturov, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 21, 2002)
- Fyodor Burlatskiy: "We Understood that Americans are Civilized People", - in Russian, (by Georgy Bovt, Izvestia, - in Russian, October 21, 2002)
- Rehearsal of Apocalypse, - in Russian, (by Andrey Zlobin, Yelena Suponina, Vremya Novostey, October 21, 2002)
- Kennedy, Khrushchev Children Meet, (by John Mcelhenny, Associated Press, Monday, October 21, 2002; 4:12 AM)
- The Night Before Third World War, - in Russian, (by Nikolay Cherkashin, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, October 18, 2002)
Smuggling of "radioactive Osmium" from Siberia to Iraq -- a fact or product of morbid imagination? Baby-bomb. Terrorists Offer Jobs for Nuclear Scientists, - in Russian, (by Alexey Tarasov, Moskovskiye Novosti, October 17, 2002)
October 15, 2002
US and Russian officials expect the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT) to be ratified by the end of the year: Senate, Duma Hope to Pass Moscow Treaty This Year, (by David McGlinchey, Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 11, 2002)Last Saturday, Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces conducted exercises, which involved launches of land-, sea- and air-based strategic nuclear missiles:
- Missile Lightnings Over Test Ranges, - in Russian, (by Anatoli Dokuchayev, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 15, 2002)
- Missile Duel Recommenced, - in Russian, (by Sergei Sokut, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, October 15, 2002)
- Military Rehearsed "Preventive Nuclear Strike", - in Russian, (by Dmitriy Litovkin, Izvestia, October 14, 2002)
- To Help the American Friend, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostei, October 14, 2002)
- Siberian-Based Bombers Scheduled to Approach Alaska, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 11, 2002)
See also: Shield Full of Holes. Time to Take Up Nuclear Weapons Seriously, - in Russian, (by Andrei Uglanov, Argumenty i Fakty, October 9, 2002) - an interview with Evgueniy Adamov, former Minister of Atomic Energy.
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) announced yesterday, it has successfully completed a flight test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) development program, intercepting an intercontinental ballistic missile target over the central Pacific Ocean in the Western Test Range:
- Missile Intercept Test Successful, U.S. Department of Defense, October 14, 2002)
- Pentagon to conduct missile defense test October 14, (Space Daily, October 10, 2002)
- Pentagon Plans to Test Missile Interceptor Monday, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 10, 2002)
- Pentagon plans a new test of the NMD system, - in Russian, (Kommersant, October 10, 2002)
UN General Assembly’s First Committee on disarmament accused the US of undermining Arms Control: United States Criticized as Undermining Arms Control, (by Jim Wurst, Global Security Newswire, Tuesday, October 8, 2002)
Congressional leaders have reached a military budget compromise to fund feasibility studies on earth-penetrating nuclear weapons. Development of mini-nukes of new types used to be prohibited by the US law:
- Congress Compromises on Bunker-Busting Nuclear Weapon, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 10, 2002)
- Congressional Compromise Allows Livermore to Begin Weapon Design, (by Dan Stober, San Hose Mercury News, October 10, 2002)
In his testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week, John R. Bolton, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security underlined that the success of the "10 plus 10 over 10" initiative to secure former Soviet weapons, launched at the Kananaskis Summit in June depends on Russia's cessation of the cooperation programs with countries like Iran and Syria on nuclear and missile technologies:
- G-8 Countries Tackle Roadblocks to Cooperative Nonproliferation, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 11, 2002)
- Russia urged to cut weapons faster, (by The Associated Press, The Russia Journal, October 10, 2002)
- John R. Bolton, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Testimony Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, October 9, 2002
- Perspective on the G-8 Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Testimony of Kenneth N. Luongo, Executive Director, RANSAC to the Committee on Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, October 9, 2002
- Testimony of Deputy Under Secretary of Defense Lisa Bronson Before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, October 9, 2002
- Laura S. H. Holgate, Vice President for Russia/New Independent States Nuclear Threat Initiative Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, on G-8 Pledges for Threat Reduction in Russia, October 9, 2002
Syria demanded an official explanation from the US about remarks made this week in Washington that Syria received Russian technology for its nuclear and missile programs:
- Syria Protests U.S. Nuke Allegations, (by The Associated Press, Sunday, October 13, 2002; 11:22 AM)
- "Evil Axis" Gets Longer, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Shumilin, Izvestia, October 10, 2002)
The PIR Center issued a monograph on Dismantling the Cold War Heritage: International Programs Assisting Russia’s Disarmament & Nonproliferation Efforts (Yuri Fedorov, Ed.) devoted to the assessment of international nonproliferation assistance to Russia.
Last week, independent experts discussed prospects of inspections in Iraq and expected results at a panel in Washington: Disarming Iraq: How Weapons Inspections Can Work and What They Can Accomplish, (Arms Control Association Panel with Ambassador Robert Gallucci, Jessica T. Mathews, Jonathan B. Tucker and Daryl G. Kimball, Monday, October 7, 2002). See also:
- In Worst Case, War Goes Nuclear, (by George C. Wilson, National Journal, Friday, October 11, 2002)
- Nuke Agency Seeks Tough Resolution, (The Washington Times, October 9, 2002, Pg. 1)
Speaking before a conference on the 40th anniversary of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis in Havana, Cuban leader Fidel Castro, partly blamed Khrushchev for the missile crisis, he said Khrushchev made political mistakes in wanting to place missiles secretly in Cuba and then telling Kennedy they were only defensive weapons:
- At Cuba Conference, Old Foes Exchange Notes on 1962 Missile Crisis, (by David Gonzalez, The New York Times, October 14, 2002)
- Cold War Foes Visit Missile Silo in Cuba, (by Anthony Boadle, Reuters, Sunday, October 13, 2002; 5:38 PM)
- 40 Years After Missile Crisis, Players Swap Stories in Cuba, (by Kevin Sullivan, Washington Post, Sunday, October 13, 2002; Page A28)
- "A War is to Break Out Soon, that Will Take Lives of Millions Russians and Americans", - in Russian, (Pravda.ru, October 12, 2002)
- Ex-War Foes Discuss Missile Crisis, (by Anita Snow, Associated Press, Friday, October 11, 2002; 6:51 PM)
- Honest Fidel and Brave Nikita, - in Russian, (by Alexei Slobodin, Vremya Novostei, October 11, 2002)
- JFK Aides in Cuba Marking 1962 Missile Crisis, (by Anthony Boadle, Reuters, Friday, October 11, 2002; 12:48 AM)
October 8, 2002
Last Friday, Hon. Alexei Arbatov, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Defense Committee, gave a lecture on "Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and Terrorism" at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology. The lecture was the first one of Non-proliferation and Reduction of Weapons of Mass Destruction Regime and National Security, a course offered by our Center. The next lecture, Non-proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction -- an Urgent Problem of the Beginning of the Third Millennium will be given by Andrei Zobov (Russian MFA Counsellor, 1 class, Ret., Senior Consultant, Carnegie Moscow Center), on October 11, 2002 at 17:00 in the Room 239 of Novy Korpus Bldg., MIPT.Thursday, October 3, Center for Arms Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT held a seminar devoted to the problem of mutual de-alerting of U.S. and Russian strategic forces. Leading Russian experts including Vladimir Dvorkin, Viktor Koltunov, Alexei Ovcharenko, Pyotr Romashkin, Gennadiy Khromov and Center's staff members took part in the seminar.
October 1, State Duma held hearings on ratification of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SORT). Reportedly, Russian parliament is not going to have open hearings on this issue:
- Curbing «The Nuclear Genie», - in Russian, (by Viktor Litovkin, Gudok, October 8, 2002)
- For the Sake of Strategic Stability, - in Russian, (by Alexei Ventslovskiy, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 5, 2002)
- Unconditional Ratification, - in Russian, (by Dmitriy Litovkin, Izvestia, October 2, 2002)
- Nuclear Double-entry Book-keeping, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostey, October 2, 2002)
- Duma Overtakes President, - in Russian, (by Viktor Litovkin, Vremya MN, October 2, 2002)
CBO issued a report that estimates costs involved in different scenarios of implementation of the SORT treaty by the United States. According to the report, additional retirement of 150 Minuteman missiles and two oldest Trident submarines would save about $5 billion over the 2003-2012 period: Estimated Costs and Savings from Implementing the Moscow Treaty, (Congressional Budget Office, Letter to Honorable Joseph R. Biden Jr., September 2002)
The US Air Force began dismantling 50 Peacekeeper ICBMs stationed at Warren air base in Wyoming. US officials plan to use the warheads removed to replace older ones on Minuteman 3 ICBMs: Air Force Begins Peacekeeper ICBM Dismantlement, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 4, 2002).
Within the next few weeks, the U.S. Navy plans to begin converting the USS Ohio Trident submarine to carry conventionally armed long range cruise missiles. The Ohio will undergo the $900 million, 18-month conversion process in Bremerton:
- Navy Prepares to Convert Oldest Trident Submarine, (Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, October 2, 2002)
- New mission for Trident sub: Navy will remove nuclear warheads, (by J.J. Jensen, The Seattle Times, October 1, 2002)
- Transforming the Submarine Force, (by Capt Floyd D. Kennedy Jr., USNR, Retired, Air and Space Power Journal, Volume XVI, No.3, Fall 2002)
In the discussion over break-out potential as the result of implementation of the SORT treaty, Washington often argues that Russia continues production of new nuclear weapons while the US has not produced a new nuclear weapon in a decade and would not be able to quickly resume production. Expert analysis shows however that the situation in fact is quite opposite:
- A Breakdown of Breakout: U.S. and Russian Warhead Production Capabilities, (by Oleg Bukharin, Arms Control Today, October 2002)
- Transparency and Predictability Measures for U.S. and Russian Strategic Arms Reductions, (by Oleg Bukharin & James Doyle, The Nonproliferation Review, Summer 2002, Volume 9, Number 2)
See also our special section Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions. Status, Comments, Expert Opinions
One of the most prominent voices of the US arms control community has declared that the Bush administration and other proponents of developing a national missile defense have won politically, and that the 20-year debate over whether to pursue such a defense is over. Joseph Cirincione, director of the Nonproliferation Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said, that arms control community concerns about the negative implications of withdrawing from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, have turned out to be wrong. "Other treaties did not fall like dominoes. The world did not get destabilized. The ABM Treaty is dead and it turns out it doesn’t really matter": Missile Debate Is Over and Bush Won, Prominent Critic Says, (by David Ruppe, Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 4, 2002). See also: Explaining Mr. Putin: Russia's New Nuclear Diplomacy, (by Andrew C. Kuchins, Arms Control Today, October 2002)
Israel is ready to deploy a new missile shield to protect Tel Aviv and other major cities if they come under fire from Iraq's arsenal of Scud missiles:
- Country Prepares for Arrow Missile Defense Test, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, October 7, 2002)
- Israel Set to Use New Missile Shield to Counter Scuds, (by Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, October 6, 2002)
- Israel Ready to Deploy Missile Shield - N.Y. Times, (by Reuters, Saturday, October 5, 2002; 11:32 PM)
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov confirmed Russian firm commitment to prevention of placement of weapons in space: Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Igor Ivanov Answers a Question from Russian Media About Averting the Placement of Weapons in Space, October 2, 2002. See also:
- Drawing the Line: the Path to Controlling Weapons in Space, (by Philip E. Coyle and John B. Rhinelander, Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 66, September 2002)
- Pelted by paint, downed by debris. Missile defenses will put valuable satellites at even greater risk., (by Joel Primack, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002, Volume 58, No. 5, pp. 24-25, 71)
More than 150 metric tons of Russian highly enriched uranium has been eliminated to date through the U.S.-Russian "Megatons to Megawatts" program. Since 1994, the program has provided enough fuel to power a city the size of Boston for about 230 years:
- HEU Deal Eliminates Equivalent of 6,000 Warheads, (Global Security Newswire, Friday, October 4, 2002)
- U.S. Enrichment Corporation Press Release, October 3, 2002)
The Defense Department spent almost $100 million to build facilities to convert rocket fuel into commercially usable products, but officials learned in February that Russia had already used the fuel for its space program:
- United States Still Funds Useless Plants, (by David McGlinchey, Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 3, 2002)
- Russia diverted U.S. aid on arms, inspector reports, (by Rowan Scarborough, The Washington Times, October 3, 2002)
The new National Security Strategy of the USA continues to draw analysts' attention:
- Prevention, Not Pre-emption, (by Daryl G. Kimball, Arms Control Today, October, 2002)
- Counterproliferation at Core of New Security Strategy, (by Christine Kucia, Arms Control Today, October, 2002)
- The U.S. National Security Strategy: A Russian Perception, (by Ivan Safranchuk, Center for Defense Information, September 26, 2002)
- The New U.S. National Security Strategy: Positives and Negatives for China, (by Li Bin, Center for Defense Information, September 26, 2002)
- The Bush National Security Strategy: A First Step, (by Marcus Corbin, Center for Defense Information, September 26, 2002)
CIA issued a report on the Iraq's efforts to make weapons of mass destruction. Unlike British government's recent assessment, the US assessment is more conservative -- the report says Iraq would probably not be able to make a nuclear weapon until the last half of the decade:
- Baghdad Continues WMD Development Efforts, CIA Says, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Monday, October 7, 2002)
- C.I.A. Says Iraq Revived Forbidden Weapons Programs, (by Michael R. Gordon, The New York Times, October 5, 2002)
- U.S. Report Cites Iraqi Threat, (The Washington Post, Saturday, October 5, 2002; Page A17)
- Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs, (Central Intelligence Agency, October 2002) - in PDF format
See also:
- Iraq: A Chronology of UN Inspections And an Assessment of Their Accomplishments, An Arms Control Association Special Report, October, 2002
- Iraq To Accept UN Inspectors; U.S. Officials Skeptical, (by Paul Kerr, Arms Control Today, October, 2002)
U.S. intelligence agencies are concerned that terrorists are working hard to acquire small nuclear weapons and nuclear material for bombs from Russia: U.S. says al Qaeda exploring Russian market for weapons, (by Bill Gertz, The Washington Times, October 8, 2002). On the danger of nuclear terrorism and ways to cope with the problem see also:
- Digital Bridle for Nuclear Terrorism, - in Russian, (by Vladimir Lukov, Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, October 4, 2002)
- Playing With Plutonium, (Wall Street Journal, October 2, 2002)
- Combating Terrorism: Preventing Nuclear Terrorism, (Summary of the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs, and International Relations of the House Committee on Government Reforms Hearing, Tuesday, September 24, 2002)
- "Suitcase Nukes": A Reassessment, (by Nikolai Sokov and William C. Potter, Center for Nonproliferation Studies at MIIS, September 23, 2002)
- Nuclear Terrorism: The Danger of Highly Enriched Uranium, (Pugwash Issue Brief, V. 2 no. 1, September 2002)
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have agreed to a treaty declaring their region a nuclear weapons-free zone. The signing ceremony is expected to be held at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan as early as this month:
- Russia Unhappy With Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone, Experts Say, (Global Security Newswire, Monday, October 7, 2002)
- Nuclear-Free Zone for Central Asia, (The Washington Post, Saturday, October 5, 2002; Page A14)
- Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Likely to Receive Limited Support, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, October 2, 2002)
- Central Asian States Achieve Breakthrough on Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty, (by Scott Parrish, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, September 30, 2002)
Cuba has confirmed its intention to ratify two major nuclear arms treaties, the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Treaty of Tlatelolco, the pact banning nuclear weapons from all of Latin America:
- Havana Moves to Ratify Nuclear Treaties, (by Greg Webb, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, October 2, 2002)
- Statement by the Permanent Representative of the Republic of Cuba, H.E. Ambassador Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla, at the General Debate of the First Committee, New York, October 1, 2002
A report by Victor Mikhailov, director of Minatom's Institute of Strategic Stability discusses the issues of non-proliferation, nuclear terrorism, and prospects of nuclear weapons reductions: Non-Proliferation Regime and Nuclear Threat Reduction, (by Victor Mikhailov, Report at the Conference "Prospects of Stability on Nuclear Subcontinent" in Bangalor, India, September 2-4, 2002)
The United Kingdom should immediately declare that it will abandon nuclear weapons once the Trident missile system reaches the end of its service life. Such a declaration would not endanger British national security and would increase pressure on other countries to also give up their nuclear weapons, according to a report prepared by the Pugwash group:
- Weapons Program Should End With Trident, Scientists Say, (Global Security Newswire, Thursday, October 3, 2002)
- UK 'should ban nuclear arms', (by Richard Norton-Taylor, The Guardian, Thursday, October 3, 2002)
- An End to UK Nuclear Weapons, (Report from the British Pugwash Group, 3 October 2002)
October 1, Moscow Carnegie Center held a seminar on "Security in South Asia". K. Santhanam, Director, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (Delhi) and Rose Gottemoeller, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, were the main speakers. See also: Deterrence or a Deadly Game? Nuclear Propaganda and Reality in South Asia, (by Achin Vanaik Disarmament Diplomacy, Issue No. 66, September 2002)
The October issue of Arms Control Today (October, 2002) includes:
- The Status of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Signatories and Ratifiers, October 2002
- North Korea Extends Missile-Test Moratorium; U.S. to Send Kelly, (by Paul Kerr)
- Baltics Deny Plans to Deploy NATO Nuclear Weapons, (by Christine Kucia)
- Nuclear Test Readiness at Risk, DOE Reports, (by Christine Kucia)
In the recent issue of The Nonproliferation Review (Summer 2002, Volume 9, Number 2):
- Why Do States Rely on Nuclear Weapons? The Case of Russia and Beyond, (by Nikolai Sokov)
- Missile Defense: More May Be Better—for China, (by Wade L. Huntley)
- Establishing Confident Accounting for Russian Weapons Plutonium, (by Thomas W. Wood, Bruce D. Reid, John L. Smoot, & James L. Fuller)
October 4, Russian Space Forces celebrated 45th anniversary of the first successful launch of Sputnik, an artificial satellite. Col. Gen. Anatoli Perminov, Commander-in-Chief of the Space Forces spoke on the problems and prospects of Russian military space:
- Sputnik Toasted 45 Years On, (by Oleg Akhmetov, The Moscow Times, October 7, 2002)
- Dependable Shield of the Country, - in Russian, (by Vyacheslav Davidenko, Alexandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 4, 2002)
- Unpeaceful Space, - in Russian, (by Nikolai Poroskov, Vremya Novostey, October 4, 2002)
- We Made Missiles Instead, - in Russian, (by Igor Amvrosov, Izvestia, October 4, 2002)
At the eve of Space Forces' anniversary, "Space Weapons", the fifth volume of "Russian Weapons and Technologies. XXI Century" encyclopaedia was published: The Whole Military Space, - in Russian, (by Anatoli Dokuchayev, Krasnaya Zvezda, October 4, 2002)
Activists of the Krasnoyarsk environmental movement are not united over the import of spent nuclear fuel into Krasnoyarsk Region. Some flatly object import of any spent nuclear fuel, others have somewhat different opinion:
- Russian 'Atomic City' Builds Future on Nuke Dreams, (by Larisa Sayenko, Reuters, Thursday, October 3, 2002; 12:37 PM)
- Spent Nuclear Fuel from Ukraine and Bulgaria Brought into Krasnoyarskiy Kray, - in Russian, (by Alexandr Kolotov, Ekoinform, October 3, 2002)
October 1, 2002
An article by our Center experts (in Russian) on the prospects of SORT Treaty ratification published recently by Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye draws experts' attention. Opinion section presents A Treaty for the Sake of a Treaty? -- a commentary by Gennadiy Khromov, who participated in development of INF, START-I and other arms control treaties, in Russian (September 27, 2002).Russian foreign ministry has proposed that Russian-US working parties on missile defense and strategic offensive arms reduction hold their first meetings in Moscow in late October or early November:
- Moscow proposes US-Russian missile shield, disarmament talks this autumn, (Space Daily, September 25, 2002)
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answers a Question from Russian Media on the Timing of the Meetings of Russian and US Working Parties on Missile Defense and Offensive Arms Reductions, in Russian, September 24, 2002
Recent Issue of the INESAP Bulletin (N 20, August 2002) is devoted to prevention of space weaponization. The issue includes:
- Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space, (by Lloyd Axworthy with Merav Datan)
- Options for Rules in Outer Space, (by Juergen Scheffran)
- Future Security in Space: Treaty Issues, (by Jonathan Dean)
- Future Security in Space: Conference Report, (by Jonathan Dean)
- Link Between MD and Space Weaponization, (by Ivan Safranchuk)
- FMCT and PAROS: A Chinese Perspective, (by Hui Zhang)
- Space Weapons and the CD, (by Clifford Singer)
- Space Weapons Ban: Thoughts on a Treaty, (by Robert E. White)
See also: A Sea of Peace or a Theater of War? Dealing with the Inevitable Conflict in Space, (by Col John E.Hyten,USAF, Air and Space Power Journal, Volume XVI, No.3, Fall 2002)
A new report by the US Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute claims that China has created a broad program to develop countermeasures to defeat a US missile defense system: New Report Details Chinese Missile Defense Countermeasures, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Wednesday, September 25, 2002)
Russian Foreign Ministry said that the report received from London via diplomatic channels concerning weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) in Iraq contains no fresh weighty evidences to confirm the existence in Iraq of WMDs or programs for the development of prohibited military programs:
- Alexander Yakovenko, the Official Spokesman of Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Answered the TVTs Question About the British Government's Report on Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, September 28, 2002
- Russia Rebuffs Blair Dossier, Wants Inspections, (by Reuters, Wednesday, September 25, 2002; 10:32 AM)
- Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction, Assessment of the British Government, 24 September 2002 (pdf)
- Iraq two years from nuclear bomb, says Blair, (by Stephen Fidler and James Blitz, The Financial Times, September 24, 2002)
On the Iraq's nuclear program see also: A Clear, But Not Imminent Danger, (by Joseph Cirincione, The Globalist, Wednesday, September 18, 2002)
In testimony to the House Government Reform Subcommittee on National Security, NGO experts argued for international community to expand critically important nuclear nonproliferation efforts to secure nuclear weapons materials across the globe:
- Weak Without Treaties, (by Michael Krepon, The Washington Post, Tuesday, October 1, 2002; Page A21)
- The Greater Nuclear Danger, (The New York Times, September 27, 2002)
- Experts Call for Revitalizing Nuclear Nonproliferation Efforts, (by Bryan Bender, Global Security Newswire, Thursday, September 26, 2002)
- Combating Terrorism: Preventing Nuclear Terrorism, (by Rose Gottemoeller, House Subcommittee on National Security, September 24, 2002)
There is a good reason to believe that the Soviet Union possessed so-called small atomic demolition munitions, commonly referred to as "suitcase nukes," and some of them might have been lost. However, they are not operational today since these devices apparently had a short shelf life and had to be serviced frequently, believes Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian diplomat and participant to the START I negotiations, currently senior research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies: 'Suitcase Nukes' Pack Little Risk, (by Nikolai Sokov, Los Angeles Times, September 26, 2002)
A US-Russian program to develop fuel alternatives for small nuclear reactors fueled with weapon-grade uranium needs more political and economic support, according to a report released today by the Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council:
- Nuclear Fuel Program Needs More Support, Experts Say, (by Mike Nartker, Global Security Newswire, Friday, September 27, 2002)
- Policy Update: Summer 2002, U.S.-Russian Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Cooperation, (by Oleg Bukharin, Christopher Ficek, and Michael Roston, Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council, September, 2002)
Turkish police seized about 15 kilograms of weapons-grade uranium, valued at $5 million, according to Turkey's Anatolian news agency Saturday. Turkish scientists said on Tuesday the substance at the center of a nuclear weapons scare was not uranium and that the material seized in the south of the country posed no threat.
- Turkey Says Seized Substance Not Uranium, (by Mehmet Emin Caliskan, Reuters, Tuesday, October 1, 2002; 8:21 AM)
- Spooks Caught Iraqi Uranium, in Russian, (by Leonid Gankin, Kommersant, September 30, 2002)
- Turkish police: Weapon-grade uranium seized, (The Washington Times, September 28, 2002)
Viktor Kuznetsov, Russia's former top nuclear safety inspector, urged Russia to suspend imports of spent nuclear fuel from abroad, saying the country must handle its own nuclear waste first:
- Ex-Inspector: Halt Waste Imports, (by Vladimir Isachenkov, Associated Press, Wednesday, September 25, 2002; 10:02 PM)
- Basic Problems and Current Status of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle Plants S, in Russian, (by Vladimir Kuznetsov, a report published in 2002)
Last Saturday was 25th anniversary of the Missile and Space Defense Army: At the Space Frontier, in Russian, (by Alexandr Dolinin, Krasnaya Zvezda, September 28, 2002). See also Pavel Podvig's report on the History and Current Status of the Russian Early Warning System, published last Summer.
40th anniversary of the end of Caribbean Crisis comes in October 2002. State Duma proposed to observe the anniversary as an event of significant international importance, and to arrange appropriate actions at the federal level: State Duma's Address to the President of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Kasyanov in connection with 40th anniversary of Caribbean Crisis, September 18, 2002.
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