What Was New
June, 1998
June 30, 1998
We are starting to put the summary of the conference The
Future of Russian - U.S. Strategic Arms Reductions: START III and Beyond
(Cambridge, MA, February 2-6, 1998) on the Web. The conference was jointly
sponsored by the M.I.T. Security
Studies Program and the Center for Arms
Control, Energy and Environmental Studies at MIPT. Visit this page
soon to learn about the progress.
Anton Surikov
answers the questions of START II discussion at "Russia
and the Outer World" forum. See also the remark
of Nikolay Sokov (in Russian).
President Boris Yeltsin will summon his Security Council next Friday
to review long-term Russian policy in the area of nuclear deterrence and
the development of strategic nuclear weapons, his spokesman said (Security
Council to Mull Nuclear Policy, by Reuters, Russia
Today, June 29, 1998).
Journalists on START II and a current state of affairs in arms control:
Chairman of the Duma Defense Committee Roman Popkovich and his Deputy Alexei
Arbatov on prospects of START II ratification
Commander of Strategic Missile Forces on savings due to "Topol-M" ICBM
deployment : New
Missile Installation to Save Russian Army R470MN (Alexander Konovalov,
RIA "Novosti",
June 26, 1998).
Problem of limitation of antisubmarine operations near ports should
be resolved in a separate U.S. - Russian Treaty similar to ABM Treaty or
within the frames of START III (Is the Treaty on Limiting Antisubmarine
Operations Necessary?, by V. Danilin, Morskoi Sbornik, N 2, February,
1998, pp. 7-9).
June 22, 1998
Our Center's publication Nuclear
Arms Reduction. The Process and Problems is now available in English.
Discussion of START II at "Russia
and the Outer World" forum has slowed down. General Vladimir Dvorkin
has promised to answer to questions of the participants.
Russian major newspapers on START II
-
We Will Owe a Third World War to the State Duma (by Oleg Odnokolenko, Segodnia,
June 18, 1998, p.2)
-
Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction: The View from the Ministry of Defense
(Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June
16, 1998, p. 8)
-
The
Strike to Clinton Personally...(or - to Russia?) - in Russian (by
Sergei Abelzev, Zavtra,
No 23, June 9, 1998) - A prominent member of LDPR faction in the Duma is
against ratification of the Treaty
Russian complaints are seen as a pre-emptive measure because of delay in
START II ratification
-
The Looming Nuclear Disarmament Burden (by Jamestown Foundation Monitor,
June 19, 1998)
-
Russia Raises Specter of U.S. Arms Violations (by Reuters, Russia
Today, June 17, 1998)
The chairman of the International Relations Committee in the U.S. House
of Representatives sent a letter to President Bill Clinton urging him to
oppose additional funding for Russia. Among other issues, he mentioned
the Duma's stalling on START II ratification as a cause for his opposition
to continued financial support to Russia (START
II delay jeopardizes Russia IMF money, by Thomas Jandl, Bellona
news release, June 8, 1998)
June 17, 1998
News from "Russia
and the Outer World" forum: Nikolay Sokov, Paul Podvig and Eugene Miasnikov
and other participants discuss effectiveness of ABM defense, benefits of
START II for the U.S., real and imaginary shortcomings of mobile "Topol"
missiles.
START II discussion goes on in public press as well:
-
START
II is a Victim of Intrigues and Light-mindedness in Russian
(by Alexander Golz, Intellectual
Capital, June 17-24, Volume 2, N 21).
-
U.S.A. Stands To More Advantage From START-2 (by Alexei Podberyozkin, Pravda-5,
June 16, 1998, p.3) - however, the Treaty must be ratified, says the author
-
The START
II Strategic Arms Treaty: the Arguments For and Against. in Russian
(Sankt-Petersburgskiye Vedomosti,
No 108(1782), June 11, 1998) - representatives of the State Duma factions
on START II Treaty
-
Russian
Domestic Concerns Stall START (Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, Proliferation Brief, June 7, 1998)
- Alexander Pikayev and Dmitri Trenin on current problems of the Treaty
ratification
The Russian military alleges the United States has violated some provisions
of the START I arms reduction treaty.
-
Russia is concerned by U.S. Non-Observance of several START I Provisions,
(Segodnia,
June 17, 1998)
-
Report: Russia Says US Broke Treaty (Associated Press, Tuesday,
June 16, 1998; 11:44 p.m. EDT)
We already mentioned about existence of these problems in Center's recent
publication Nuclear Arms Reduction.
The Process and Problems (we just started publishing this report
in English).
June 13, 1998
Welcome to join a Web-discussion of the START II treaty and problems
of its ratification by Russia. The two most respected Russian Parliamentary
experts
-
Prof. Alexei G. Arbatov, MP, Deputy Chair of the State Duma Defense
Committee (Yabloko faction) and
-
Anton V.Surikov,, counsellor to Yuri.D.Maslyukov, Chair of the State
Duma Committee on Economical Policy
have posted their articles and will answer to your questions. Discussion
is hosted by Rossia
i Zagraniza (Russia and the Outer World) forum of "Russki Zhurnal"
("Russian Magazine"). Russian is advised as it's the working language of
the discussion.
U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has deplored the Russian
parliament's latest refusal to approve a treaty sharply reducing nuclear
weapons, calling the decision a serious setback.
Newspapers continue to comment the Duma's decision to postpone Duma hearings
on START II:
Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, the Defense Ministry's international relations
chief, had recently made clear Russia's reaction would be "extremely tough"
if the three Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
-
Russia May be Mulling Atomic Arms in Baltic (by Reuters, Russia
Today, June 12, 1998)
-
Our Answer to NATO in the Baltics, (Russian
Telegraph, June 12, 1998)
The latest issue of The
INESAP Information Bulletin (Issue N 15, April 1998) reports:
-
Evaluating and Reducing Nuclear Weapons Risk Over the Next Two Decades
(by Ike Jeanes, pp. 21-25)
-
NATO Expansion, Nuclear Weapons and European Security (by Jiri Matousek,
pp. 26-29)
-
De-Nuke NATO (by Karina Wood, pp. 30-31)
-
The U.S. Presidential Decision Directive 60 (by Gotz Neunek, pp.35-38)
-
Future Directions in Nuclear Arms Control and Verification (by Steve Fetter,
pp.50-54)
June 11, 1998
Russia's lower house of parliament on Wednesday scrapped plans to hold
a hearing on the START II arms reduction treaty next week, dealing a new
blow to U.S. and Kremlin hopes that it will soon be ratified. A proposal
by ultra-nationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky to put off the June 16 hearing
won the approval of 235 deputies in the opposition-dominated Duma and was
opposed by only 39. Zhirinovsky has made clear he wants no hearing before
the autumn session.
-
Deputies Left START III Consideration for the Autumn (Russian
Telegraph, June 11, 1998)
-
Parliament Delays Hearing On START II Arms Treaty (The
Moscow Times, June 11, 1998)
-
Clinton Disappointed on START II (Associated Press, Wednesday, June
10, 1998; 6:55 p.m. EDT)
-
Albright Slams Russia Over Start II (by Barry Schweid, Associated Press,
Wednesday, June 10, 1998; 1:20 p.m. EDT)
-
Duma Drops START 2 Hearing from Agenda (by Reuters, Russia
Today, June 10, 1998)
Worth of your attention: Discussions, when the The
State Duma rejected the proposal of the Duma Committee for International
Affairs on the setting up of a commission to prepare the START-2 Treaty.
Excerpts from the Duma hearings on May
13 and May
14 (in Russian)
June 5, 1998
Parliament's lower house decided Thursday to postpone by one week their
scheduled hearings on ratifying the long-delayed START II treaty. The State
Duma's agenda-setting council decided that the hearings planned for June
9 should be moved to June 16.
Communist Yuri Maslyukov, Chair of the Economical Policy Committee of the
State Duma, called the CPRF faction for approving START II Treaty (START
II is Given a Chance, NVO-NG, N 21, June 5-18, 1998, p.1)
June 4, 1998
Press agencies report, that Duma hearings on START II will take place
on Tuesday, June 9.
-
Deputies do not Let Clinton Come to Moscow (by Vladimir Yermolin, Russian
Telegraph, June 4, 1998, p.2)
-
The
State Duma Rejects Vladimir Zhirinovsky's Proposal to Cancel Parliamentary
Hearings on the START-2 Treaty Slated for June 9, (by Galina Amelkina,
RIA "Novosti",
June 3, 1998)
-
Parliament Brings Forward START 2 Debate (by Reuters, Russia
Today, June 3, 1998)
-
Russian START II to Begin Next Week (Associated Press, Tuesday,
June 2, 1998; 10:02 a.m. EDT)
June 2, 1998
The first closed-door parliamentary hearings on the ratification of
the START II treaty will be held Friday, the speaker of the State Duma
said Monday (START II Hearings, The
Moscow Times, June 2, 1998). The news appears to be a reversal
of a previous decision by the Duma to postpone the hearings until September.
See also
-
Position of Communist
Experts Open the Way to the Ratification of Start-2 - in Russian
(by Sergei Sokut, Nezavisimaya
Gazeta, May 30, 1998, p.2)
-
Russia Speaker: NATO Hurt START II, (The Associated Press, May 29,
1998)
-
State Duma Committee Says START II Talks Dead (The
Moscow Times, May 29, 1998)
-
Ratification
is Death! -in Russian (by Albert Makashov, Zavtra,
May 26, 1998)
The world press continues to cover responses on recent nuclear tests in
Pakistan (see Coalition's
"Special Section
on Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Testing and the Test Ban", India
Pakistan Nuclear Crisis - Special Report at FAS
web-site, and Global Beat
of New York University.
To break the dangerous dynamic the United States, Russia and the other
charter members of the nuclear club must make it more credible that they
really intend to put the club out of business (The
Alternative to Nuclear Tests, by Zia Mian and Frank von Hippel, The
Washington Post, Sunday, May 31, 1998; Page C07)
May, 1998
May 28, 1998
Pakistan conducted five nuclear tests today.
Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Lukin on prospects of START II Ratification:
Kiriyenko told Russian news agencies on his return from the secret nuclear
research city of Sarov, long known as Arzamas-16, that the government would
approve a special development plan for atomic weapons next month.
May 22, 1998
The View of Strategic Missile Forces Commander on Future of Russian
Strategic Forces and Opponents on START II Ratification
-
At the Conjuncture of Under Financing (Vladimir Yakovlev, NVO-NG,
N 19, May 22-28, 1998, p. 4)
-
START
II: Ratification is Deathlike -in Russian (by Alexandr Prokhanov,
Zavtra, N
20, May 19, 1998)
-
State Duma Analysts:
START II Ratification is Expedient After Implementing Additional Conditions
and Provisos -in Russian (PIR
Center, April 29, 1998)
May 20, 1998
The Duma is expected to hold hearings on START-2 in early June, but
no date has been set for ratification debates. Reportedly, Yeltsin's Communist
opponents want them to take place in autumn at the earliest.
-
Chemical Therapy for START II Treaty (Segodnya,
May 20, 1998)
-
Duma Members Fight a Nuclear War with Yeltsin (Russian
Telegraph, May 20, 1998)
-
Yeltsin to Urge Duma to Ratify START-2 (by Reuters, Russia
Today, May 19, 1998)
-
Communists
Seen Blocking Yeltsin on START II Ratification (By David Hoffman, The
Washington Post, Tuesday, May 19, 1998; Page A22)
In Birmingham President Yeltsin repeated a promise he has been making since
1993 that the Duma will quickly pass START II and announced that President
Clinton would visit Moscow in July to open talks on START III. However,
Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott indicated a Clinton visit won't
happen until the Duma votes.
-
Yeltsin, Clinton Discuss Nuclear Issues (The
Moscow Times, May 19, 1998)
-
Clinton Presses Yeltsin on Start II Ratification (by Richard W. Stevenson,
The New York Times, May 18,
1998)
-
Clinton, Yeltsin Eye Further Cuts in Arms (by Paul Bedard, The
Washington Times, May 18, 1998)
-
Yeltsin, Clinton Discuss Iran Sales (by Robert Burns, Associated Press,
Monday, May 18, 1998)
-
India's Nuclear Tests May Spur U.S., Russian Cuts (by Reuters, Russia
Today, May 18, 1998)
It is not easy to channel a discussion on a constructive road. More arguments
for and against the treaty:
-
In
the Absence Of A Real Military Threat, the Economic Factor Is Of Decisive
Importance For Russia In The Matter Of Ratification Of The START II Treaty,
A Russian Expert (by Alexander Konovalov, RIA
"Novosti", May 19, 1998
-
However,
We Handed Over Our Missiles... (by A. Ulianov, Zavtra,
N 19, May 12, 1998)
May 15, 1998
World press continues commenting reaction on nuclear explosions in
India. On Wednesday, a second series of nuclear tests was conducted. See
details on Web sites of Coalition
to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, Federation
of American Scientists (FAS) and Global
Beat of New York University,
START II ratification remains in the spring session's agenda of the
State Duma.
-
The
State Duma will not ratify the START-2 Treaty until it gets the government's
reply to the main question how much it will cost (by Galina Amelkina
RIA "Novosti",
May 14, 1998)
-
The
State Duma today rejected the proposal of the Duma Committee for International
Affairs on the setting up of a commission to prepare the START-2 Treaty
(by Galina Filippova, RIA
"Novosti", May 14, 1998)
-
Setting Up a Commission Is Proposed Instead of Ratifying Start-2 (by Vladimir
Yermolin, Russian Telegraph,
May 14, 1998 p. 2) It is proposed to set up parliamentary commission on
START-2 ratification, but State Duma seems to be unprepared for this compromise.
-
Yeltsin Wants Early Approval of START-2 (by Reuters, Russia
Today, May 13, 1998)
-
Further START II Delay Threatened (by Leslie Shepherd, Associated Press,
Tuesday, May 12, 1998)
A paper "Combat
Duty on Nuclear Kegs" -in Russian (by Alexey Tarasov Izvestiya,
May 12, 1998) draws attention to pure state of Russian liquid fuel
SLBMs and missiles' production base. See also yesterday's The
Washington Post (Russia
Is Warned Of Missile Menace Corroding Submarine-Based Weapons Threaten
Nuclear Disaster, Expert Says, By David Hoffman, The
Washington Post, Thursday, May 14, 1998; Page A25)
In April's issue of Nuclear
Security, (N 11-12):
Recent Yaderny Control
(N 2, March-April, 1998) presents:
-
Will START II Be Ratified or Not? It Depends on the President (by Vladimir
Orlov, p. 3)
-
The Concept of Nuclear Deterrence and START III (by Vladimir Belous, pp.
44-52)
-
Nuclear Weapons as a Foreign Policy Resource: The Search for an Adequacy
Criterion (by Ivan Safranchuk, pp. 53-56)
May 12, 1998
India has conducted three nuclear tests yesterday. There is no doubt,
that this event will make a strong impact on the character of nuclear disarmament
process in the world. The press coverage, official statements and experts'
opinions can be found at Coalition
to Reduce Nuclear Dangers special site.
Two stories have been covered broadly by western media sources last
two weeks.
The first one is presentation by Samuel R. Berger, Assistant to the
President for National Security Affairs, at Georgetown University. In particular,
he said, that "...there is no reason to believe that Russian political
and military leaders will agree to sharply reduce strategic nuclear missiles
in the absence of the ABM Treaty's constraints on defenses against those
missiles..."(Remarks
to the Annual Washington Forum of Business Executives for National Security
by Samuel R. Berger, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs,
Georgetown University - May 5, 1998). See also press stories:
-
Berger Warns Russia Won't Cut Nukes without ABM Treaty (by Reuters, Russia
Today, May 6, 1998)
-
Adviser Urges Arms Control Treaty (by Laura Myers, Associated Press,
Wednesday, May 5, 1998)
-
President Clinton's
National Security Advisor Sandy Berger is Urging the U.S. Senate to Ratify
Several Arms Control Treaties (by Voice of America, May 5, 1998)
-
Nuclear Experts
Support Action on Test Ban Treaty, Endorse National Security Advisor's
Renewed Call for Senate Vote in 1998 (A Coalition
to Reduce Nuclear Dangers News Release, May 5, 1998).
The second - publication by established U.S. experts Accidental
Nuclear War -- A Post-Cold War Assessment (by Lachlan Forrow, Bruce
G. Blair, Ira Helfand, George Lewis, Theodore Postol, Victor Sidel, Barry
S. Levy, Herbert Abrams and Christine Cassel) in The
New England Journal of Medicine (April 30, 1998). The authors have
chosen to analyze a scenario of the launch against the United States of
the weapons on board a Russian Delta-IV ballistic-missile submarine, since
they believe, that the safeguards against the unauthorized launch of Russian
submarine-based missiles are weaker than those against either silo-based
or mobile land-based rockets. See also:
-
Accidental
Nuclear War: Increased Risk of Nuclear Missile Launch from Russian Submarines
(by Thomas Nilsen, Bellona, May
5, 1998)
-
Doomsday Scenario
Envisions Rogue Russian Missile Starting Holocaust (by The Associated
Press, Florida Today Space
Online, April 30, 1998)
-
Russian
Says Anti-nuke Docs' Scenario is `Total Stupidity' (The Associated
Press, April 30, 1998)
-
Nuclear Doomsday Scenario Shown (by Laura Myers, The Associated Press,
Thursday, April 30, 1998)
-
Risk
of Accidental Nuclear Attack Risk Rising (by Leslie Gevirtz, Reuters,
April 29, 1998)
After a delay of several years, prospects for Russian passage of START
II treaty remain as murky as ever. Some Russia experts believe START II
passage is even less likely after the NATO vote and after Yeltsin had to
expend vast political capital in parliament to install a new prime minister,
35-year-old Sergei Kiriyenko. (After
NATO Vote, Doubts on U.S.-Russia Rapport Key Relationship Strained by Other
Differences as Clinton Has Focused Elsewhere, by John F. Harris, The
Washington Post, Monday, May 4, 1998; Page A16).
On prospects of START II ratification see also:
In our comment on collision
of two U.S. submarines, we have already mentioned about an incident
that occurred last December in the Barents Sea as the Russian navy was
destroying ballistic missiles under the START I treaty. Recently The
Washington Post reported about the incident (Moscow
Files Complaint With U.S. Over Sub Incident, The
Washington Post, Tuesday, May 5, 1998; Page A16). Unfortunately,
the article contains some inaccuracies. The story will be continued.
President Clinton submitted to Congress a report on the U.S. approach
to implementing the Helsinki Joint Statement, as required by the Fiscal
Year 1998 Defense Department Authorization Act Conference Report (On
US approach to implementing Helsinki Joint Statement, Presidents Report
on Helsinki Joint Statement, April 23, 1998).
CBO estimates budgetary impacts of various scenarios for strategic forces
as a result of implementation of START II and START III (Estimated
Budgetary Impacts of Alternative Levels of Strategic Forces, a letter
by the Congressional Budget Office to Senator Thomas A. Daschle, March
18, 1998).
What Was New?
In 1998: January
| February
| March |
April
In 1997: November
| December
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Studies at MIPT, 1997-98.